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Baium nectar chance


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I alaeary opened 10.000 large seeds and no baium or zakem

formula to know the probability of drop happen atleast one time is

<1-(1-chance of baium+zaken)^n>.100

n=number of trys

n=10.000

if chance is 1% so the chance of getting in 10.000 is near 100%

if 0,1% the chance near 99,995% of getting atleast one in 10000 large

if 0,01 the chance is 63% of getting atleast one

 

so i want to know how many is the chance of getting it cuz i think the drop just dont happen

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Dude the chance works  like a dice, every time you roll it you have 16.666% hit one number (let's assume 5), but you may hit that number after 2 rolls, 4 rolls, 10 rolls and so on.

So, assuming that Baium have 0,01% chance (1/10.000), doesn't mean after 10.000 you will get your ring.  You may get nothing, 2, or 3 rings, depends on your luck.

I belive chances here are very low, something like 0,0001% (1/1million), we are talking about baium ring after all :P

Also, as Manaros said, only Emperor Squash  has a chance to drop it.

Take care dude!

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On 22.06.2019 at 10:43 PM, stalingrado said:

I alaeary opened 10.000 large seeds and no baium or zakem

formula to know the probability of drop happen atleast one time is

<1-(1-chance of baium+zaken)^n>.100

n=number of trys

n=10.000

if chance is 1% so the chance of getting in 10.000 is near 100%

if 0,1% the chance near 99,995% of getting atleast one in 10000 large

if 0,01 the chance is 63% of getting atleast one

 

so i want to know how many is the chance of getting it cuz i think the drop just dont happen

You are gravely mistaken for thinking that opening 10000 of squashes accumulates to 100% with every squash you kill. You could open even 1 000 000 of squashes and the chance REMAINS 1%. On the side note it is still possible to get 10000 out of 10000 while having that 1% chance drop but chances on that are quite low.

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19 hours ago, Aikanaro said:

You are gravely mistaken for thinking that opening 10000 of squashes accumulates to 100% with every squash you kill. You could open even 1 000 000 of squashes and the chance REMAINS 1%. On the side note it is still possible to get 10000 out of 10000 while having that 1% chance drop but chances on that are quite low.

He doesn't make a difference between statistical chance and practical chance :)

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Assuming that the probability of getting a baium ring from each emperor pumpkin is independent, and that probability is x

Then to get 0 baium rings at n rolls the probability is: (1-x)^n

i.e. if the probability of getting a baium is 0.01% (0.0001) then for 10,000 emperors the chance of NOT getting a baium is 0.9999^10000, which comes to around 36.79%
 

Edited by giakkas
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