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stalingrado

Baium nectar chance

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stalingrado    1

I alaeary opened 10.000 large seeds and no baium or zakem

formula to know the probability of drop happen atleast one time is

<1-(1-chance of baium+zaken)^n>.100

n=number of trys

n=10.000

if chance is 1% so the chance of getting in 10.000 is near 100%

if 0,1% the chance near 99,995% of getting atleast one in 10000 large

if 0,01 the chance is 63% of getting atleast one

 

so i want to know how many is the chance of getting it cuz i think the drop just dont happen

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Manaros    0

I don't know where have you found this formula and if this formula is accurate. But if it is, does this formula consider the fact that only Emperor Squash can give zaken and bauim as a reward?

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Bozolina    1

Dude the chance works  like a dice, every time you roll it you have 16.666% hit one number (let's assume 5), but you may hit that number after 2 rolls, 4 rolls, 10 rolls and so on.

So, assuming that Baium have 0,01% chance (1/10.000), doesn't mean after 10.000 you will get your ring.  You may get nothing, 2, or 3 rings, depends on your luck.

I belive chances here are very low, something like 0,0001% (1/1million), we are talking about baium ring after all :P

Also, as Manaros said, only Emperor Squash  has a chance to drop it.

Take care dude!

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Aikanaro    4
On 22.06.2019 at 10:43 PM, stalingrado said:

I alaeary opened 10.000 large seeds and no baium or zakem

formula to know the probability of drop happen atleast one time is

<1-(1-chance of baium+zaken)^n>.100

n=number of trys

n=10.000

if chance is 1% so the chance of getting in 10.000 is near 100%

if 0,1% the chance near 99,995% of getting atleast one in 10000 large

if 0,01 the chance is 63% of getting atleast one

 

so i want to know how many is the chance of getting it cuz i think the drop just dont happen

You are gravely mistaken for thinking that opening 10000 of squashes accumulates to 100% with every squash you kill. You could open even 1 000 000 of squashes and the chance REMAINS 1%. On the side note it is still possible to get 10000 out of 10000 while having that 1% chance drop but chances on that are quite low.

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mixa    285
19 hours ago, Aikanaro said:

You are gravely mistaken for thinking that opening 10000 of squashes accumulates to 100% with every squash you kill. You could open even 1 000 000 of squashes and the chance REMAINS 1%. On the side note it is still possible to get 10000 out of 10000 while having that 1% chance drop but chances on that are quite low.

He doesn't make a difference between statistical chance and practical chance :)

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giakkas    0
Posted (edited)

Assuming that the probability of getting a baium ring from each emperor pumpkin is independent, and that probability is x

Then to get 0 baium rings at n rolls the probability is: (1-x)^n

i.e. if the probability of getting a baium is 0.01% (0.0001) then for 10,000 emperors the chance of NOT getting a baium is 0.9999^10000, which comes to around 36.79%
 

Edited by giakkas

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