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Misrepresenting chance on God Jewels


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I have recently Made 7 Attempts to craft a paagrio earring. Here is what the "chance" is according to NC Soft

god-jewel.png

As you can see the chance above shows the SAME description for each.. if the probability is the same the success rate should be 50%. I tested this theory and attempted 7 crafts, all failed. To give you an idea of the probability of 7 fails in a row when the chance is 50% it would be. 1 /128 or 0.78% Try flipping a coin and getting it to land on tails 7 times in a row.. good luck, but NC soft would try and have us believe that THAT is representative of the above. 

When I confronted NC Soft customer service about this they had the following to say: "crafting God Accessories like the Pa'agrio's Earring are intended to be a challenging task as these items can greatly help on your character's progress. We didn't locate any issues or errors on the crafting system of the game."

So if there aren't any issues and 0.78% is an acceptable rate then the Probability that is shown to players is incorrect, in other wards, NC Soft is lying about its probabilities and when pressed on the issue refuses to tell the players what the real rate is: "While it does show that successfully crafting a Pa'agrio's Earring-Stage 1 is 'High', it doesn't show the percentage. Unfortunately, Game Support is unable to provide this information as we are not part of the Development Process"

So Support is telling its player base that it is "working as intended" yet they do not have access to the success rates to check and see if 0.78% is the correct success rate. This further illustrates that support is not actually doing anything to support the player base what so ever.

 

 

Please Petition this and push NC Soft to give us % like they do in other country's and stop with these false probabilities.  

 

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I have recently Made 7 Attempts to craft a paagrio earring. Here is what the "chance" is according to NC Soft As you can see the chance above shows the SAME description for each.. if the pro

Agreed. Showing "high" chance for both outcomes indicates a 50/50% chance.  Tests by numerous individuals has proven that this is not the case. This is at best misleading your playerbase, and at worst

UPDATE:  NC Soft has now turned off my support and no longer replies to any ticket I place.  The point of this post isn't about "Nova" it's about the GAME being fair... EVERYONE being able t

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I would very much like to see the percentage rates posted for all probability chances. This includes the in-game crafting system which states the probability as 'High', 'Medium' and 'Low.' This would also include the Loot box chances too for every item obtainable inside loot box type events. This way the L2 Community can make more informed decisions on attempting crafts and know full well the chance they have to create a craft or obtain an item from a loot box.

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+++ +

 

I agree - the probability of items crafting, coming out of boxes, or any sort of the Gacha mechanics in this game. It would at least give me an idea of what's worth opening and what's not. It's rough to spend money on a game that relies on strict gambling when you don't even know the probabilities of gambling. At least irl in gambling you have an idea of odds.

NC, please post probabilities by the percent.

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Agreed. Showing "high" chance for both outcomes indicates a 50/50% chance.  Tests by numerous individuals has proven that this is not the case. This is at best misleading your playerbase, and at worst, outright lying about the odds.  The % rates are posted in other regions, why are they not posted here? Are the rates lowered for the NA servers? If so, what is the justification for this? If not, why not just translate the rates from the other regions? You're forcing these players to gamble without giving them a honest and clear picture of the possible outcomes. This applies to enchants, crafting, event rewards, etc.  Where does it end? Quit cheating your customers and fix your descriptions. Post your rates. 

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I agree with that but there are 2 facts to consider:

- They are not being audited or certified by any third party or regulatory body so they can claim everything without consequences and without anybody being able to verify their claims.

- Even if the odds are correct, i.e. 50-50, high risk events or odds for expensive items are made in such a way in gambling products that in order to reach the actual percentage, the sample should be as big as billions of attempts..

The best thing to happen for us players, is the gambling regulations to be extended, so that loot boxes' games like l2 are put under strict supervision by authorities, like the rest of the gambling is.. This has been discussed many times in the past here..

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@MrE I m sorry for you !

 

You tried with forbidden intermediary (hight chance) it means hight, so it's not guaranteed, it's an average, you have to be aware of the probabilities, you can fail 100 times in a row and succeed 100 times in a row, and you can get it after only 2 tries etc... and the fact of displaying the rates doesn't mean that you'll have better luck, but indeed the fact of saying hight chance is a commercial argument for NC soft.

Thanks !

 

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This post is very strongly based on assumption that it's 50:50, while in reality in the L2 files chances are defined as 1 over 1000 (1%), so in practice, even if it says High chance and lets assume that's 50%, your actual chance for success is 500 out of 1000 tries (variable).I hope this will help you understand even a little bit the underlying mechanics in L2.

Good luck!

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This further illustrates that support is not actually doing anything to support the player base what so ever.

@MrE I can give you tones of screenshots as evidence upon request.

It seems to me there is almost no people on the support, only an automated software with pre-set replies.

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As we can see nova mafia started crying and make mass petition :D

@Ramki How much does NCSoft pay you for that post (is it in Adena, NCoins, favored ticket resolution or straight up the cash; how did they recruit you)?

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7 hours ago, mixa said:

This post is very strongly based on assumption that it's 50:50, while in reality in the L2 files chances are defined as 1 over 1000 (1%), so in practice, even if it says High chance and lets assume that's 50%, your actual chance for success is 500 out of 1000 tries (variable).I hope this will help you understand even a little bit the underlying mechanics in L2.

Good luck!

What is this INVESTOPIA? Are we calculating risk here? This is a game, not a casino. We running PIPS?

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6 hours ago, ArctodusSimus said:

What is this INVESTOPIA? Are we calculating risk here? This is a game, not a casino. We running PIPS?

This is how these things are managed. It has nothing to do with casinos, just underlaying mechanisms.

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So much money is spent on this game; its an absurd amount in comparison to other games. I would think they would make all this digital pixel crap a heck of a lot easier to get, or at least make the chance to win much higher. For real you spend a grand and you get nothing, this is a a game right?

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UPDATE: 

NC Soft has now turned off my support and no longer replies to any ticket I place. 

The point of this post isn't about "Nova" it's about the GAME being fair... EVERYONE being able to say "hey... is a 3% chance worth 500$?" Lets be honest... the prices here are absurd and we, at the VERY least,..... ALL OF US, regardless of clan, deserve to know the REAL chances of something. When you have something that says... you are going to get either A or B and there is an EQUAL chance at both... that should NEVER mean less than 50%. 

No one here needs to posture or say go play something else or anything else negative.. this is an issue that affects all of us and nothing will change unless we ALL stand up and make them change.. MASS PETITION them.. as for changes... this is OUR game WE PAY FOR IT... make them change for the betterment of the players.. not what helps and works for them.    

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I agree MORE TRANSPARENCY with rates, ESPECIALLY on p2w boxes

Additionally, I would like to add that every time I send a support ticket asking for MORE TRANSPARENCY the NC SUPPORT responds with "PLEASE MAKE A FORUM POST"

So let's find out how much integrity this company actually has..

SO here you are @Juji

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+1 petition to show REAL % of enchants, chances of everything that they presents, they need regulamentation we are speaking of a lot of $$$$ and they CAN'T move in TOTALLY ANARCHY of rules, they are scandalous

Edited by -Madonna-
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