Misrepresenting chance on God Jewels

[ReZzZ]

7 hours ago, MrE said:

No one here needs to posture or say go play something else or anything else negative.. this is an issue that affects all of us and nothing will change unless we ALL stand up and make them change.. MASS PETITION them.. as for changes...this is OUR game WE PAY FOR IT... make them change for the betterment of the players.. not what helps and works for them.    

It's not an issue, it's a scam/fraud, it's different.... surely the doctor dont tell us to play here but at least be correct so people know what they are going for....

About the: WE PAY FOR IT... it's a Free to play game even if u decide to use money, in this you are wrong. You want to pay for it it's different, and in the same way i want to spend some cash too. BUT if i want to use cash i want clear % not scams, high is high not average/low etc..etc..

For EXAMPLE....Haunted chest event too is a scam if i have a 0,0005% probability to drop 4 example bracelet lev4 i want to know it.... without clear % u can have a possibility to drop bracelet lev 4 true...but maybe this is the 0,000000000000000004% who know?!?! I can put the possibility i want as a company and i'm in the right because U HAVE THE POSSIBILITY ..... but lol it's better to throw the cash out of the window..!

Where is the NCstaff? Why support tell to us to post here issues where no one answer? Who know the truth, no one cares?They can't... boh?!?! As you can see in this forums, the discussions, every discussion, is going in only one direction...in the worst or without any answer.

Prolly the staff too don't know the answers and they need to throw a bit of sand in our eyes. Surely they are reading but, as childs they hide under the desk for some reason, maybe for company policy or whatever. I worked in personnel management and when the company policy is totally wrong, you as employee, can just hide because no one answer can give a real explanation; and how you can tell to people that this isn't a scam? They just repost the EULA that is written capillary for their business, where you don't find real clear conditions and you thros cash out of the window every week,mounth and so on.

[Degus]

true post..

2 results both with high chance should = 50% chance!  Truth is, if some1 hired a lawyer, yes, nc would be screwed, but so would we, because the game would shut down.  Most people playing are too lazy to actually get motivated and do something about it.   Many, many times I failed enchanting a skill with 98% success rate, sometimes in a row, luckiest man in the world I guess? Support doesn't know L2 from angry birds, I don't mean Juji/hime support, I mean tickets.   I reported seriouse bug and they had no idea what I was talking about, after several tickets, I gave up, the npc still gives wrong item and isn't working as intended.   IMO they need to lower the prices, a lot, 50-80%,  so market gets flooded with the crap noobies need and wales buy twice as much till they get that dragon claw or w/e.  And rezzz is right, staff hiding under their desks because soon as upper management gets wind, those desks will be emptied, so I understand, do nothing and get paid, who wouldn't. 

[CataPvE]

On 10/23/2020 at 3:40 AM, MrE said:

So Support is telling its player base that it is "working as intended" yet they do not have access to the success rates to check and see if 0.78% is the correct success rate. This further illustrates that support is not actually doing anything to support the player base what so ever.

 

I think they are bots , everything you ask them they say working as intended stuff. Like anything, they just paste stuffs .

[BurnCycle]

Although i agree with the starting post, posting this on forums won't do anything unfortunately. NCWest been ignoring complains from their player base for years now mostly because, unless they are forced to, they have zero power to do any changes in game policy's.

If you want changes in this matter the only way to do it is the way Koreans were able to solve this issue: complain to your local authorities. They complained to their government and they were heard.
So, if you reside in the US do a formal complaint to the whatever government section responsible to this kind of issues and wait for a reply.

[PanZloty]

Simple advice
Stop paying for 1 week, you will get full info 100%
Crying won't give a damn

[Mystikal]

15 hours ago, PanZloty said:

Simple advice
Stop paying for 1 week, you will get full info 100%
Crying won't give a damn

A week won't cut it. They'd have to stop for a month. And all that would really do is force NCSoft to figure out other ways to grift players out of their money. It's the whole point of this gaming business model. Lots of vulnerable personality types play these games. NCSoft preys on them. 

[PanZloty]

About one week too little fact
There is covid 19 all over the world
so I propose on the L2 Store from October 27, 2020 until December 24, 2020
Please respect

[MrE]

@Juji Support constantly pushes us to Forums as "They aren't developers" and "can't do anything". So here we are on the forums..... it's pretty obvious people want posted success rates... WE AREN'T ASKING FOR ANYTHING OTHER SERVERS DON'T ALREADY HAVE!!!!

Where is your comment? Where is the discussion on the topic with developers or even an acknowledgement of the problem? Oh wait, were nothing but a cash cow and you give zero shits about your player base... SORRY My bad, must have mistaken L2 support for another MMO, like nearly any of them at this point.. it can't get worse for support than this. 

 

 

Edited October 28, 2020 by MrE

[Leone]

On 23.10.2020 at 3:40 AM, MrE said:

I have recently Made 7 Attempts to craft a paagrio earring. Here is what the "chance" is according to NC Soft

As you can see the chance above shows the SAME description for each.. if the probability is the same the success rate should be 50%. I tested this theory and attempted 7 crafts, all failed. To give you an idea of the probability of 7 fails in a row when the chance is 50% it would be. 1 /128 or 0.78% Try flipping a coin and getting it to land on tails 7 times in a row.. good luck, but NC soft would try and have us believe that THAT is representative of the above. 

When I confronted NC Soft customer service about this they had the following to say: "crafting God Accessories like the Pa'agrio's Earring are intended to be a challenging task as these items can greatly help on your character's progress. We didn't locate any issues or errors on the crafting system of the game."

So if there aren't any issues and 0.78% is an acceptable rate then the Probability that is shown to players is incorrect, in other wards, NC Soft is lying about its probabilities and when pressed on the issue refuses to tell the players what the real rate is: "While it does show that successfully crafting a Pa'agrio's Earring-Stage 1 is 'High', it doesn't show the percentage. Unfortunately, Game Support is unable to provide this information as we are not part of the Development Process"

So Support is telling its player base that it is "working as intended" yet they do not have access to the success rates to check and see if 0.78% is the correct success rate. This further illustrates that support is not actually doing anything to support the player base what so ever.

 

 

Please Petition this and push NC Soft to give us % like they do in other country's and stop with these false probabilities.  

 

So if you failed 7 times in a row that means Fistingtime was very lucky to get his jewels st3/4.What a lucky guy!

[KeepDreamiN]

2 things:
- Yes, they really should display rates so we can make educated guessed
- No, this isnt the equivalent of 0,78% unless you clicked 7 times in a row. If you just clicked 7 times in a time span of days/weeks, your tries were just part of a larger picture, and while yes you ve been extremely unlucky you cant claim you got the outcome corresponding to a 0,78% chance..

[Whatif]

On 10/23/2020 at 1:40 AM, MrE said:

I have recently Made 7 Attempts to craft a paagrio earring. Here is what the "chance" is according to NC Soft

As you can see the chance above shows the SAME description for each.. if the probability is the same the success rate should be 50%. I tested this theory and attempted 7 crafts, all failed. To give you an idea of the probability of 7 fails in a row when the chance is 50% it would be. 1 /128 or 0.78% Try flipping a coin and getting it to land on tails 7 times in a row.. good luck, but NC soft would try and have us believe that THAT is representative of the above. 

When I confronted NC Soft customer service about this they had the following to say: "crafting God Accessories like the Pa'agrio's Earring are intended to be a challenging task as these items can greatly help on your character's progress. We didn't locate any issues or errors on the crafting system of the game."

So if there aren't any issues and 0.78% is an acceptable rate then the Probability that is shown to players is incorrect, in other wards, NC Soft is lying about its probabilities and when pressed on the issue refuses to tell the players what the real rate is: "While it does show that successfully crafting a Pa'agrio's Earring-Stage 1 is 'High', it doesn't show the percentage. Unfortunately, Game Support is unable to provide this information as we are not part of the Development Process"

So Support is telling its player base that it is "working as intended" yet they do not have access to the success rates to check and see if 0.78% is the correct success rate. This further illustrates that support is not actually doing anything to support the player base what so ever.

 

 

Please Petition this and push NC Soft to give us % like they do in other country's and stop with these false probabilities.  

 

People do not understand what is 50% ..... can you actually explain to me how do you understand 50%? because now (I'm pretty sure ) you think something like this ( ok I click double times and one of them will succeed)  which is a pretty damn wrong idea in your head. It can be anything it's just a 50% chance where you can obviously hit another 50% which fails for 100 times in a row. 

[Degus]

8 hours ago, Whatif said:

People do not understand what is 50% ..... can you actually explain to me how do you understand 50%? because now (I'm pretty sure ) you think something like this ( ok I click double times and one of them will succeed)  which is a pretty damn wrong idea in your head. It can be anything it's just a 50% chance where you can obviously hit another 50% which fails for 100 times in a row. 

ummm, what?

[Whatif]

9 hours ago, Degus said:

ummm, what?

Ummm what, what?  Noone knows the base where this 50% coming from what is 50% in l2 ? is it Monday success Tuesday fail? Or Is it 3 digital  ones and 3 zeros sequence?  What is the base of this  High High?  If You can't understand what I'm saying idk then... not for mediocre brains try google then.

[TheThrax]

high-high aka equal chance to get an item is like flipping a coin...in real life if you flip a coin the chance to get head 7 times in a row is pretty small...almost impossible.
I guess in digital world things are working different...

[Degus]

10 hours ago, Whatif said:

Ummm what, what?  Noone knows the base where this 50% coming from what is 50% in l2 ? is it Monday success Tuesday fail? Or Is it 3 digital  ones and 3 zeros sequence?  What is the base of this  High High?  If You can't understand what I'm saying idk then... not for mediocre brains try google then.

ok, your knowledge of law tells me you aren't from the US.  Here, if it says 50% chance, you better be ready for a law suit if it's not, there is  NO wiggle room.  You give an actual number and sway, totally illegal.    Yes, every flip starts the counter over, but agreed, 7 in a row is highly unlikely.   Don't try to explain it as L2 50%,  half is half, the coin will not land on it's edge.  I don't know what could be more clear, they are telling you there are 2 possible outcomes, both with the same rate, that's 50/50. That's actually like 2nd grade math, don't need googles help on that 1.

[Whatif]

20 hours ago, Degus said:

ok, your knowledge of law tells me you aren't from the US.  Here, if it says 50% chance, you better be ready for a law suit if it's not, there is  NO wiggle room.  You give an actual number and sway, totally illegal.    Yes, every flip starts the counter over, but agreed, 7 in a row is highly unlikely.   Don't try to explain it as L2 50%,  half is half, the coin will not land on it's edge.  I don't know what could be more clear, they are telling you there are 2 possible outcomes, both with the same rate, that's 50/50. That's actually like 2nd grade math, don't need googles help on that 1.

https://www.dictionary.com/e/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/difference-between-average-mean-median-and-mode2-790x310.jpg here maybe this will explain you a bit better the difference average vs another type of skews in statistics.I recommend use images this might hit  more into your head  

[Degus]

correct me if I'm wrong, aren't we talking about percents here?  remember, 50/50?  you know what ya get when ya divide your out comes by total the test number?   you get a %!!!!    that was 1st grade math, you'll get it next year.  Do your own study man, roll a die and call odds or evens, do then 50 times, then come back here.  wth are you talkin average for?  if your average  is much higher (or lower) , then you need to re-look the 50/50 just like OP said.  these are tests you can try at home kids, the earth is not flat.

[m0da]

2 hours ago, Degus said:

correct me if I'm wrong, aren't we talking about percents here?  remember, 50/50?  you know what ya get when ya divide your out comes by total the test number?   you get a %!!!!    that was 1st grade math, you'll get it next year.  Do your own study man, roll a die and call odds or evens, do then 50 times, then come back here.  wth are you talkin average for?  if your average  is much higher (or lower) , then you need to re-look the 50/50 just like OP said.  these are tests you can try at home kids, the earth is not flat.

What you and other ppl are saying is correct on the physical world or when tossing a coin..

However, RNG is not working according to the physical laws.. In gambling aka RNG, you could have huge discrepancies in the results, meaning you could have lot of failed consecutive attempts and then lot of succeses.. What matters is that at the end of a cycle, which could be even a billion of attempts, the nominal percentage is reached..

I am not in any way defending NC or saying that this is what they actually do or they should do, because i don't know.. I am just saying what really happens with RNG/gambling products and to me as a player this is how the events in l2 seem to be working like...

My opinion is that this is a game and shouldn't be a casino and more importantly a very expensive one.. I mean there are events here where you can gamble with 500 dollars and get nothing.. This is as close to a scam as it can be if you ask me, and despite that there are ppl who do try.. Add to that, that casinos are being audited and monitored by authorities so more or less they do follow some rules, which is obviously not the case here..

And by the way, there has been some improvement in prices and events over the last few months, but there is much more room for more imo...

[Mystikal]

50/50 chance doesn't necessarily mean 50/50 outcome. In that gray area you can mathematically rig the game so that the house never really loses.

[Degus]

10 minutes ago, Mystikal said:

50/50 chance doesn't necessarily mean 50/50 outcome. In that gray area you can mathematically rig the game so that the house never really loses.

I'm not sure how you can use the word "rig" and leave out the word illegal.  Here's where I think people are getting lost.  Flip a coin, 50/50 chance of heads, right?.  Now, if  I flip that coin and YOU choose the outcome,  the coin is still landing 50/50, buy you may guess wrong every single time because you can change your answer. That's 2 different things, you may be unlucky that way, but the odds are still the same, they are set at 50/50, if they aren't, you can not advertise it as such. 

[Mystikal]

1 minute ago, Degus said:

I'm not sure how you can use the word "rig" and leave out the word illegal.  Here's where I think people are getting lost.  Flip a coin, 50/50 chance of heads, right?.  Now, if  I flip that coin and YOU choose the outcome,  the coin is still landing 50/50, buy you may guess wrong every single time because you can change your answer. That's 2 different things, you may be unlucky that way, but the odds are still the same, they are set at 50/50, if they aren't, you can not advertise it as such. 

Change "rig" to "weighted" or "dynamically adjusted" and it's not illegal. If that was the case, no state lottery in the country would be permitted to exist. There's always something in the system to legally modify outcomes, even if you go into it with favorable chances on paper. 

I don't care about what my chances are going into the coin toss. Anything short of 100% means fail is possible. With L2 it means very likely. But if you tell me the outcome is always going to be 50/50 no matter what, even if the system has to be "dynamically adjusted" to ensure that all of its results are 50/50, then I'll take those odds. Right now God Jewel crafts and other probabilities may say one thing going into the toss, but the results are another thing completely. "High" is not "High" and the system isn't being manipulated to ensure that the outcome matches the stated chance. Nor will it ever.

 

[Degus]

nope, state lottery have the odds posted, if I'm wrong please prove this to me.  i'm not being a JERK, i really am interested in learning if I am wrong.  I 100% disagree with your statement, "There's always something in the system to legally modify outcomes"  no way!   High chance means nothing alone, but if there are only 2 possible outcomes, and you say there is equal chance in achieving them, that's 50/50, so if i win and you somehow change the results, that is 100% illegal, no way around that.  

[Mystikal]

1 minute ago, Degus said:

nope, state lottery have the odds posted, if I'm wrong please prove this to me.  i'm not being a JERK, i really am interested in learning if I am wrong.  I 100% disagree with your statement, "There's always something in the system to legally modify outcomes"  no way!   High chance means nothing alone, but if there are only 2 possible outcomes, and you say there is equal chance in achieving them, that's 50/50, so if i win and you somehow change the results, that is 100% illegal, no way around that.  

We did this exercise back in college in statistical methodology class. Yes, state lotteries all post odds going into it. But the outcomes? They never match. But no need to believe me, just watch the lottery results. It's not a coincidence that you almost always get multiple winners when the jackpot is large, and it's not because the number of tickets sold increases exponentially more relative to the stated odds. Their thumb is on the scale, albeit affecting the outcome in a good way. 

[Degus]

Not buying that 1 bit, sorry

Its much easier to flip a coin.  we are talking 50% chance, half, compared to your 1 in a million odds.  I can do this test as I type, and it's coming out exactly they way you would expect

Edited November 4, 2020 by Degus
added

[Tuky]

Srry but as I see it that very low, low, high is just some kind of space for probability for example

very low 0,001 - 0,2%

low 0,2 - 2,5%

normal 2,5-15%

high 15% - 85%

very high 85 - 99,999%

Thats why if high:high its not 50:50   but also can be 15:85 because both numbers are in specification 

Sure there should be more crazy 1:x