Historical Tome probability

[Uriel831]

@Wissptell me why Historical Tome failing on 99% fill bar. I know in 1% can but this probability should by 1:100 not 1:10. People in clan have succes with 30% that is literary very bad chance. Something is wrong with your equasion!!!

[iAndouille]

and sometime ppl succeed 1% chance things  in 1-10 try too,  in random anything can happen,

personally i coumpounded many insanity onto heaven (4%) and they all failed over time,

i know some ppl who made them in 1-2 try , that's the reality of random  

[Helv]

Korean random, can't do anything about it I'm afraid.

Sorry for an offtopic, but are there any other ways to get those tomes other than crafting or dethrone?

Can't scratch a mob in Dethrone and I don't have any more mats to craft. Maybe I've missed something? Ive already lost hope when it comes to getting that free greater rune stone at lvl 50 due to random chances, but it also seems getting the tomes is mission impossible.

[Siri]

It's sadly korean random.

Last night i cleaned my wh and found Energy of Longing's. Failed 27x using them trying to make a Talisman Insanity (while it is 7% chance).

Something what i can clearly say, is that the enchant rates for Dragon Shirts, Radiant Circlets and  La Vie Brooch seems to be lower now than before.

I steady doing these for OE'ing to +5/+7 for resale for months/years. And lately the rates are horrible. I used to make +5 circlets with average of 150-200 scrolls. Now i have a average of like 300-400 scrolls for the circlet.

My last two been ~ 500 and ~600 scrolls (120 luc)

[Siri]

@Helv TOI also drops, but on lower chance.

 

At Korea they can use r99/r110 gear to upgrade the historical tome too.

@Wissp @Hermes @Hyunkel why doesn't it work here?

[Ballkain]

wtf is this Korea random you keep spouting off.  Do I need to go to Korea to learn about it?  I'm in the usa, so this should not apply to me right?   If fraud your trying to put lipstick on.  50% is 50%, if you alter if, it's fraud.  They completely lie about odds and half you idiots are ok with it cuz it's "Korean random."  

9 fails in a row at 50% is practically impossible,  funny how 9 successes in a row at 50% are far, far more rare then 9 fails,  non-existent 1 might say.

[Helv]

23 minutes ago, Ballkain said:

9 fails in a row at 50% is practically impossible,  funny how 9 successes in a row at 50% are far, far more rare then 9 fails,  non-existent 1 might say.

While I'm not defending NC Soft and I agree the chances are too low, I think you need to learn a bit of how probability works... If the chance is 50%, it's 50% every time, it does not matter how many times you try. Therefore, if you try your luck at 50% the fact that you're doing it for the 9th time does not change anything.

[Slycutter]

There have been evidence that their probabilities listed it game dont hold water.

If you flip a coin 100 times should fall around the 50 50 range

If somehow u get 99 heads 1 tail something is wrong with the coin because in world of science and math that chance is infantismile.  Now if it happens to 1 person its an outlier but because it keeps happening there is a problem with the probability engine which is if your a coder you would understand.

 

They can say anything is 99% only they know what the true roll is.  Unless someone challenges them and brings them to court to display their probabilities in a control environment all we are doing is guessing

[Uriel831]

21 hours ago, Helv said:

Korean random, can't do anything about it I'm afraid.

Sorry for an offtopic, but are there any other ways to get those tomes other than crafting or dethrone?

Can't scratch a mob in Dethrone and I don't have any more mats to craft. Maybe I've missed something? Ive already lost hope when it comes to getting that free greater rune stone at lvl 50 due to random chances, but it also seems getting the tomes is mission impossible.

in Korea have boxes with 1000 pieces in Einhesant store

[Uzume]

1 hour ago, Uriel831 said:

in Korea have boxes with 1000 pieces in Einhesant store

This!

[Ballkain]

10 hours ago, Helv said:

While I'm not defending NC Soft and I agree the chances are too low, I think you need to learn a bit of how probability works... If the chance is 50%, it's 50% every time, it does not matter how many times you try. Therefore, if you try your luck at 50% the fact that you're doing it for the 9th time does not change anything.

You are also incorrect, pull out a coin and try it, that is 50/50, go ahead, flip 9 times and call it.  Then come tell me I don't know how probability works.  So tired of hearing that argument!