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Experiment - Prowler & Venomous Spider drops


Devoid
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Hi all,

in light of the current situation, where drop rates are unknown and we must rely on anecdotal evidence to determine anything, including if relations between rates match (namely, if I get 100 "Recipe: Something" drops, then I am bound to get 14 "Something Else" drops… or am I?), I have decided to gather some data on de-facto monster drops. After all, empirical data cannot lie - if someone tells you the theoretical chance is 1 out of 10, but a long term investigation shows an event happens at a rate of roughly 1 out of 43, there is no reason to believe the person who claims he knows/he designed the system/etc.

For this starting experiment, I have selected the Spider's Nest area, as it is infamous for having 24/7 bots (which is excellent for data gathering). The test was conducted in Giran server. Enough introductions, time to look at the data.

Prowler (Observed kills: 6250) Comparison: https://l2wiki.com/classic/Prowler
Leather Glove Lining (1): 228 drops = 3.648%
Healing Potion (1): 224 drops = 3.584%
Thread (1): 219 drops = 3.504%
Stem (1): 192 drops = 3.072%
Animal Skin (1): 119 drops = 1.904%
Charcoal (1): 105 drops = 1.680%
Iron Ore (1): 104 drops = 1.664%
Suede (1): 67 drops = 1.072%
Leather Gloves: 11 drops = 0.176%
Low Boots: 9 drops = 0.144%

Giant Venomous Spider (Observed kills: 6410) Comparison: https://l2wiki.com/classic/Giant_Venomous_Spider
Stem (1): 301 drops = 4.696%
Thread (1): 253 drops = 3.947%
Recipe: Boots (1): 110 drops = 1.716%
Suede (1): 88 drops = 1.373%
Sword of Reflection Blade (1):  4 drops = 0.062%
Sword of Reflection: 2 drops = 0.031%

Unfortunately, no conclusions can be drawn from the gathered data, potentially due to low sample size. Some items are between 4 and 7 times rarer (e.g. Leather Gloves & Lining/Low Boots), some mats seem with halved rates, while others are mostly in line. In other words, there is no obvious multiplier, neither in general, nor category based (as much as I would like to say fulldrop and key mat drop is divided by 5). I will keep adding updates to this thread as the sample size increases.

On the other hand, these are low level monsters. Perhaps the community would like me to investigate drop rates of specific monsters?

Edited by Devoid
Some wording changes
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All rates seems to be lower than it should be, it's even more worse in areas like DV,EV etc. People have to start playing from the start again if they like to make adena (I mean easier trains, less soulshots/spiritshots on trains and you make the same or more adena in low areas). 
We farm like 20h, maybe more in 4 days AOE in EV and we got like 4 FP temper parts,2 Orcish poleaxe parts,12 FP shield etc. Seems like admin cannot fix that or they don't want to cause there's a reason they like it this way..

P.S what you did was sick

Edited by SOiL
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Good to have empirical data.  The rates probably should be lower at this level since the game gives so much free gear & such early on.  If you are willing, it would be quite useful to have data for 40+ mobs, especially spoils for those mobs.  The game doesn't give gear for C level and above so at least VIP4 should be getting 1x 1.5 rates from 40+ (just my opinion, of course).  It would be great to know how far short of that level the actual current rates are.

Thanks.

PS: What VIP level produced the above results?

Edited by Lawman
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34 minutes ago, FatChocobo said:

Could you explain how you collected this data? I'd love to repeat something similar while I'm grinding.

Using good old L2Wh methods.

14 hours ago, Lawman said:

PS: What VIP level produced the above results?

There is no way to tell. The method in use uses the volume of data to offset any possible anomalies, such as people killing deep red mobs, people killing deep blue mobs, people with drop bonuses, etc.

Spoiling requires you to either spawn personally or (at least) be in party with a spoiler. Adena is even worse, as even if you are in party, you can never know how much other nearby people got (e.g., you might be the only one that got X-1 adena, or you might be the only one that got X+1 adena, or anything in between). On the other hand, it is possible to force adena drops (in other words, to avoid auto-loot), and in that case adena drops are observed - but forcing adena to drop is so very inconvenient (and thus rare) that I have omitted adena (min/max) from the drop list.

14 hours ago, Lawman said:

If you are willing, it would be quite useful to have data for 40+ mobs

I will post some data I gathered from CT1 in a new thread and will see if there's enough from DV entrance to post.

 

UPDATE, as promised:

Prowler (Observed kills: 18246) Comparison: https://l2wiki.com/classic/Prowler
Leather Glove Lining (1): 664 drops = 3.639%
Healing Potion (1): 657 drops = 3.601%
Thread (1): 582 drops = 3.190%
Stem (1): 557 drops = 3.053%
Animal Skin (1): 395 drops = 2.165%
Charcoal (1): 286 drops = 1.567%
Iron Ore (1): 282 drops = 1.546%
Suede (1): 181 drops = 0.992%
Low Boots: 28 drops = 0.153%
Leather Gloves: 24 drops = 0.132%

Giant Venomous Spider (Observed kills: 19515) Comparison: https://l2wiki.com/classic/Giant_Venomous_Spider
Stem (1): 1224 drops = 6.272%
Thread (1): 1215 drops = 6.226%
Recipe: Boots (1): 480 drops = 2.460%
Suede (1): 416 drops = 2.132%
Sword of Reflection Blade (1): 20 drops = 0.102%
Sword of Reflection: 2 drops = 0.010%
Long Sword: 2 drops = 0.010%
Sword of Watershadow: 1 drop = 0.005%

 

 

 

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Are people seriously this dense?  Obviously these tests show that while the drop LIST may be similar to the L2 Classic Wiki for the EU version, the drop RATES are vastly different.  There is absolutely no correlation as far as the rates go.  This server is unique.

 

Probably because it's a DIFFERENT SERVER.  It's simply NOT the same.  I mean, it seems simple to me. 

 

Either way, you should all thank Devoid for running these tests.  Thanks Devoid!

 

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