Concerns about RNG mechanics in Lineage II

[Grundor]

Dear Lineage II community and developers,

I am writing to share my concerns regarding the Random Number Generation (RNG) mechanics in the game, specifically in regard to the crafting system. As a dedicated player, I have invested a significant amount of time and resources into crafting items, only to experience numerous failures despite the success rate displayed in the game.

I would like to share with you some calculations I made regarding the success rate of enchanting items, specifically the Rabbit Doll 13 to 14. The game interface states a success rate of 0.03%, which implies that on average, a player would need approximately 3333 attempts to successfully enchant the item.

Based on my calculations, the probability of success for each individual attempt with a 0.03% chance is:

0.03 / 100 = 0.0003

The probability of not succeeding after 7,000 independent attempts are:

(1 - 0.0003)^7000 = 0.198 or 19.8%

While it's possible that I just had a streak of bad luck, it's also possible that there's an issue with the game's mechanics or system that's preventing me from succeeding. I've submitted a support ticket to request a detailed verification of the chance of success and to check for any errors or issues that could be causing latency and unresponsiveness affecting the RNG.

To put it into perspective, the probability of failing to enchant a B-grade weapon from +4 to +5 with a 70% success rate is only 34.3%, while the probability of failing to enchant the Rabbit Doll 13 to 14 after 7000 attempts is much lower. This leads me to suspect that the actual success rate for the Rabbit Doll 13 to 14 may be significantly lower than what is stated in the game interface.

I understand that RNG governs the game mechanics, but I believe the current system may not function as intended. I have conducted extensive calculations and simulations, which suggest that the actual success rate may be significantly lower than the rate displayed in the game.

I am not alone in experiencing these issues, as many players have reported similar experiences with the crafting system. Investing so much time and resources is frustrating, only to be met with failure repeatedly.

I respectfully request that the development team investigates the RNG mechanics in the crafting system to ensure that it is functioning as intended. Additionally, I would appreciate more transparency and accuracy in the success rate displayed in the game.

Thank you for your time and consideration. I look forward to hearing from the development team on this matter.

Sincerely

[ConorMcGregor]

your sample size is incredibly low to come to any conclusion. the sample size required to test your theory is unobtainable

[Grundor]

23 minutes ago, ConorMcGregor said:

your sample size is incredibly low to come to any conclusion. the sample size required to test your theory is unobtainable

 

Hey ConorMcGregor,

I get where you're coming from, but I don't think a sample size of 7000 attempts is small. It's not like I just tried it a few times and came to a conclusion. I've invested a lot of time and resources into this and it's not just me who's been experiencing these issues.

Besides, it's not like I have access to a bigger sample size. Only the GMs have access to that kind of resource to test it, and they're not exactly forthcoming with it.

But hey, I'm open to any suggestions on how to gather more data on this. Do you have any ideas?

Cheers

[ConorMcGregor]

It is a small sample size for probability of succeeding with 0.03% chance.

If put simply without doing advanced math, 7000 is still small given that on average you would need 3333. The normal distribution for a small chance like 0.03 is going to have incredibly skewed results. For example if you ran your simulation a billion times, you will have cases where you will succeed with ~100 fragments, however there will be other cases where you could have spent over a million fragments and never gotten it. There is no way to obtain a valid sample size inside the game, thus you are just playing roulette

[Grundor]

Agreed that 7000 is not a large sample size for a 0.03% chance. However, the probability of failing 7000 times in a row with a 0.03% chance is incredibly low. And given that I have seen many players, including myself, experiencing a much lower success rate than what is stated in the game, it seems likely that something is off. Of course, we cannot obtain a valid sample size inside the game, but a GM could provide more data.

Thanks for your input though, always good to have different perspectives.

[MoskmaN]

you can have a 80% and fail always. Ncsoft its like a casino, the house always wins and all the games are touch by evil hands.

[Zoticx]

58 minutes ago, MoskmaN said:

you can have a 80% and fail always. Ncsoft its like a casino, the house always wins and all the games are touch by evil hands.

Remember on day 2 a few players hit 15 and many more hit level 14, they did this a sample size maximum of 6,000 as no way to get more clicks on a single account.   Not saying math is broken but they were on the extreme light side of the coin to your 2x effort without success.   

Related we have a friend who used 17,000 venir and still not able to go from 12-18 when math says 2-3,000 should get you their.  Ncsoft uses rng but I think there is more winners and losers than there should be and the system is slightly flawed.  I saw an alt with 30 pieces craft x3 Elixers in one craft....and mains with 100 attempts only have 3 or 4.

[UkanezV94]

The same thing happened to me, I invested everything and passed that number in adena that they said in the probabilities and a lie, everything failed. It seems to me that they should compensate.