Lets talk about market :)

[KissMyKnife]

This 1 its on my mind like a month now

How to start it, ok, i know.
Back in time, yull was over powered, was the best class, and all related item between mages and phy, was double cause of yull, that was ok, i mean if you want the top damage you should pay more, and then dev team see all the cry post for yull its overpowered, they nerf it so much, right now, between feoh and yull, feoh make double  damage yes you see it right, the current damage holder its feoh, and yull so weak, its a joke for all class, even top geared players like fuu, change yull to tyrr,  because they know the true, yull its totaly weak, even a tyrr make better damage :P.
And now for the reason why i post this thread brooch jewel, in naia sapphire and blue cat its like 150b, the best class on l2 have the cheapest damage increase,  and where is ruby and red cat? 400 for g ruby and 600b for g red cat
what you think why so much diff have between mage and phy broocj jewels?
1.  Because seller still think physical class its stronger then mages?
or
2. Because players  choice physical  class so have a lot fish so 1/4 will pay the huge price and they not care the 90% of player who cant offer the large price

if the 2nd is the right now, then its the wrong way, because the server active gamer 90% its control phy class, and even if the jewels cheap like sapphire, still make same profit like with overpowered price, because you easealy can craft 800 lv1 jewel with 100b worth craft item,

[LordDragnil]

...

PS

I see

[PimpMyBow]

demand and supply and all that

[Slycutter]

Because more classes than a Yul use ruby an red cat than just yul.  IE Tanks, Iss, Deathknight, Tyrrs and Rouges.

Nukers are the only ones that use those jewels sapphire and blue cat eye.

 

[KissMyKnife]

Heres a pointing, we are alot right? as you say slycutter, so 90% of the server need ruby and red cat, so should be cheap because seller have many many customers who can sell the item. act like a noob like phy class its a lot so 1 out of 4 can offer my adena, its noobish, better if sell 4 for /4 cheaper, and faster because every1 can offer  it.

[Fumb]

I saw that too on the nightcoin event , why the price discrepancy on Rubies vs Sapphires. That seemed shady.

 

[KissMyKnife]

seems no1 understand me, even my friend said i should buy a g ruby for 350b, so i decide to calc my reason for why ruby should be cheap

To MAKE 1 LV1 Ruby
Ether 210 "priceles junk on your wh you cant transfer adena out of it"
Black Mithril 105 "around 200k"
Oriharukon Ore 105 "60k-100k its totaly random"
Dragon Scales 105 "lets say 100k"
Angels Feather 105 "60k-80k"

Now to calc the whole think, lets say 50% for success so lets say 400 box, so 800 try, you can agree 400 box should be enough for 1 lv5
So
Ether 210x800=168k but heres a think we calc 400 fail so 8400, so 160k
all other item need 105x800= 84k

Lets calc 84k craft item price
200kx84k=16b
lets calc the highest one 100kx84k=8.4b
3rd also 8.4b
and the last i calc 80kx84k=6.8b
so the total craft item worth like 16+2x8.4+6.8b=42b  for 400 lv1 box, so not even 100b for 800 lv1 box, theres no way you cant make 1 ruby lv5 with 400 box.
So here is, you just need a lot ether, top noob should have more then 300k ether, even i have like 75k, and my main toon its othel.

[NejJim]

On 5/21/2022 at 5:15 AM, KissMyKnife said:

So here is, you just need a lot ether, top noob should have more then 300k ether, even i have like 75k, and my main toon its othel.

i was so amused by this calculation.. since you refer the Ether to "priceless junk".. when in fact. THIS is the limited cap item/day you can get... all other items can be farmed in big amounts.. you claim to have 75k.. now ask yourself.. how long did it take you to MAKE those??? and then go make several Ruby 5

So maybe.. just MAYBE.. calc INTO a value of hard working earned Ether! 

[NejJim]

also..  did you really check the probablity rates?

since make lvl2 is 50%

lvl3 is 40% 

lvl4 is 18%

and lvl5 is 7%

if i remember correctly.. the calc is then: 0,5*0,4*0,18*0,07=0,00252=0,252% to succeed

so dont  you consider yourself LUCKY if 400 will do the trick?

[NejJim]

so to sum up.. lets say makin 100k ether will do the trick..  it will still take you MORE than 1 year to make with 240 ether/day

to get 1  ruby 5 (according to math probability)..  so in my personal opinion.. those "priceless junk" is the MOST valuable in the craft

 

[KissMyKnife]

ok recalc again  with your %s

lets say i have 400 lv1,  ok now the trick part, 1 success 1 fail so 3 lose, so in here  133 lv2 ok ok
lv3 its 40% so 1 success nono not good 40% 40% how how 40 80 120 how to calc this ah  ok 1 success 2 fail or 2 success 3 fail? ok lets sec 2 success and 3 fail, so 4+3 so its 7, 19 lv3 ok lets say 20

lv4 18% so 5 fail 1 success so 7/20 so 3 lv4 can be more but lets say max 5 if lucky will not enough  for lvl 5 hm, but this game its more like for luck, 400 can be good or bad, or 1200 can be worse its about luck

[NejJim]

20 minutes ago, KissMyKnife said:

ok recalc again  with your %s

lets say i have 400 lv1,  ok now the trick part, 1 success 1 fail so 3 lose, so in here  133 lv2 ok ok
lv3 its 40% so 1 success nono not good 40% 40% how how 40 80 120 how to calc this ah  ok 1 success 2 fail or 2 success 3 fail? ok lets sec 2 success and 3 fail, so 4+3 so its 7, 19 lv3 ok lets say 20

lv4 18% so 5 fail 1 success so 7/20 so 3 lv4 can be more but lets say max 5 if lucky will not enough  for lvl 5 hm, but this game its more like for luck, 400 can be good or bad, or 1200 can be worse its about luck

ehm.. i use a logical math calc on probability.. works with big numbers.. and not on random luck.. its a PURE math formula

also not on rounding up attempts...  let me give you an example:

if you hit a mob 10x..  you can make an average calc on dmg.. with random crits.. so your dps is calculated on 10x hits

if you hit mob 100x.. you get a MUCH more accurate calc.. since the crit becomes LESS RANDOM due to the higher number of attempts to get crits.

so this is how the calc of % works.. its NOT based on RANDOM LUCK.. or else might aswell say.. need 16x lvl1 ruby to make lvl5... due to random luck you NEVER fail