Rates aren't as advertised with Mystery Boxes, here is the real math.

[SkimMilk]

++ To this.....  garbage tactics

[Joebob]

20 hours ago, Znip said:

"If we extend this out beyond 20 to say 100, there is only a %0.9941 chance of failure EACH TIME after 100. "

Sorry? you can never say "each time after X i will have X chance" when it comes to math.

In this case, 5% is always 5%.
What you can do is calculate the chance of something happening or not happening - but thats it.
You never have anything other than a 5% chance a click. no matter how many clicks you do.

 

"0.95^20 = 0.36. That means, out of 20 attempts, to NOT succeed is a 0.36% chance.  "

No, first of all that's a very basic way of calculating probability, but what you just did is calculate the percent of failing 20 times in a row, which is 36%.

0.95^20 = 0.36, this means 36% not 0.36%

 

 

But yes, failing 150 in a row is very bad luck. but it can happen.
Failing 150 in a row, would be 0.05% chance.
Unlikely? yes.

I just want to reiterate this so people understand. As Znip said, probability does not work like that. If you fail a 5% chance 149 times, your 150th attempt is still a 5% chance. Each attempt is always a static 5%. If have not started attempting yet and you are going to perform 150 attempts, then you have a 99.95% (1-0.95^150) chance to succeed at least one of those attempts. But again, every individual attempt is still a 5% chance.

Note, there are games that progressively increase the odds as you attempt but our version of L2 does not do that. Would be nice, but it doesn't. 

[Ballkain]

not sure wtf you are all talkin about, 5% is 5%.  its a pick of 5 numbers 1-100 and a roll.  it's a choice of 50 numbers 1-1000 if thats how ya wanna look at it.  yes it resets every roll.  BUT, in 100 rolls, or 1000, w/e, that's a large amount of 5% chances.

[Nawdur]

30 - 70% chance of dish, but when i used 20kain weapon in a row at 20% chance failed all, so something was wrong or work as intended

[gabby]

16 hours ago, Joebob said:

I just want to reiterate this so people understand. As Znip said, probability does not work like that. If you fail a 5% chance 149 times, your 150th attempt is still a 5% chance. Each attempt is always a static 5%. If have not started attempting yet and you are going to perform 150 attempts, then you have a 99.95% (1-0.95^150) chance to succeed at least one of those attempts. But again, every individual attempt is still a 5% chance.

Note, there are games that progressively increase the odds as you attempt but our version of L2 does not do that. Would be nice, but it doesn't. 

PROBABILITY works EXACTLY like that. Do not confuse probability and Percentage. This is math, if you doubt it, go talk to someone that actually does probability and statistics. In Typical Lineage 2 Fashion, you are all caught up on trying to "Prove someone wrong" rather than what the poster is trying to tell you. The Rates aren't accurate as advertised. 

It is a near impossibility, to fail a 5% chance 150 times in a row.... PERIOD. And for those that say "well it IS possible" Yes, for one character once in a blue moon over millions of attempts of years, yes.. it IS possible. What isn't possible is this kind of thing happening ALL the time to multiple people in the game, WHICH IT DOES. 

So try getting your collective heads out of your butts, and put the effort into getting NC Soft to either Post ACCURATE rates, or have them explain what is really going on. Because as it stands, This is unfair, inaccurate and we as players are getting taken. 

 

[Znip]

20 hours ago, gabby said:

PROBABILITY works EXACTLY like that. Do not confuse probability and Percentage. This is math, if you doubt it, go talk to someone that actually does probability and statistics. In Typical Lineage 2 Fashion, you are all caught up on trying to "Prove someone wrong" rather than what the poster is trying to tell you. The Rates aren't accurate as advertised. 

It is a near impossibility, to fail a 5% chance 150 times in a row.... PERIOD. And for those that say "well it IS possible" Yes, for one character once in a blue moon over millions of attempts of years, yes.. it IS possible. What isn't possible is this kind of thing happening ALL the time to multiple people in the game, WHICH IT DOES. 

So try getting your collective heads out of your butts, and put the effort into getting NC Soft to either Post ACCURATE rates, or have them explain what is really going on. Because as it stands, This is unfair, inaccurate and we as players are getting taken. 

 

 

How about you share your math and explain how every click after 100 attempts is magically turned from 5% to 99.5%?

99.95% is the chance to NOT succeed if clicking 150 times in a row.
Put in perspective, thats 1:2000 chance of happening. that is nothing. it will happen frequently. and the people it happens to will scream bloody murder.
Near impossibility? Millions of years? bro, its literally a 1:2000 chance. get real.

That is not unheard of, you had a stroke of bad luck. it happens.
Winning the jackpot in eurojackpot is 1:59325279
Do you even comprehend the difference here?

I dare 10 people to record themselves clicking 6>7, and we'll see how many clicks it takes on average

Anyone want to bet against that it'll be 5% on average?


I still think gambling events suck goat nutsacks BTW.
 

[gabby]

On 12/17/2022 at 8:13 AM, Znip said:

 

How about you share your math and explain how every click after 100 attempts is magically turned from 5% to 99.5%?

99.95% is the chance to NOT succeed if clicking 150 times in a row.
Put in perspective, thats 1:2000 chance of happening. that is nothing. it will happen frequently. and the people it happens to will scream bloody murder.
Near impossibility? Millions of years? bro, its literally a 1:2000 chance. get real.

That is not unheard of, you had a stroke of bad luck. it happens.
Winning the jackpot in eurojackpot is 1:59325279
Do you even comprehend the difference here?

I dare 10 people to record themselves clicking 6>7, and we'll see how many clicks it takes on average

Anyone want to bet against that it'll be 5% on average?


I still think gambling events suck goat nutsacks BTW.
 

It's doesn't change the chance turbo. Learn math and probability. The PROBABILITY if you have a 5% chance, to fail repeatedly is what decreases. If you have a 5% chance, and fail 100 times in a row, then every subsequent chance after that 100th failure, should be an extremely high chance to succeed. 

If there is a 5% chance it will happen on one try, then the chance it won’t happen is 95%, which is a probability of 0.95.

If you intend to try two times, then the probability it won’t happen on either try is 0.95x0.95 = 0.9025 or 90.25%

This means the chance that it will happen on one or the other (or both!) of those tries is 9.75%

If you intend to try 3 times, then the probability it won’t happen on any of the three tries will be 0.95x0.95x0.95 = 0.85737, for a chance of 86% So that the chance it does happen on one or more of those three is 14%

You see the pattern?

The probability of something happening at least once in n tries, then, is going to be p=1–(0.95)np=1–(0.95)n

The percentage chance is just 100p.

What you want to know is what n you need to get you a particular p. You can do the algebra, but it is actually easier just to use the above formula on a computer and use trial and error.

Since 5% is 1 in 20, there is a tendency to say that you need to try 20 times to get one result. This is a mistake.

The chance of getting at at least one result in 20 tries would be 64% … so you’d only get that roughly two-3rds of the time. That’s good enough for gambling but it is hardly certain.

The number of tries needed for 90% is 45 … in fact, you’d “expect” a result 2–3 times in 45 goes.

To be almost certain, at 99%, you need to set out to have 90 tries! 

This is called math.. it's a thing, to be more specific it's called probability, so before you go out and try to "correct someone" take a breath, stop being an l2 troll, and concentrate on the reality. NC Soft wests rates are NOT AS ADVERTISED. The MATH... this thing I just showed, proves it logically and with real numbers and real probability. Not QQ L2 trolling of telling someone they are wrong. Being a Troll is what they count on because it creates friction and allows trolls to attempt to discredit real issues so NC Soft doesn't have to answer to them. 

[Znip]

1 hour ago, gabby said:

It's doesn't change the chance turbo. Learn math and probability. The PROBABILITY if you have a 5% chance, to fail repeatedly is what decreases. If you have a 5% chance, and fail 100 times in a row, then every subsequent chance after that 100th failure, should be an extremely high chance to succeed. 

If there is a 5% chance it will happen on one try, then the chance it won’t happen is 95%, which is a probability of 0.95.

If you intend to try two times, then the probability it won’t happen on either try is 0.95x0.95 = 0.9025 or 90.25%

This means the chance that it will happen on one or the other (or both!) of those tries is 9.75%

If you intend to try 3 times, then the probability it won’t happen on any of the three tries will be 0.95x0.95x0.95 = 0.85737, for a chance of 86% So that the chance it does happen on one or more of those three is 14%

You see the pattern?

The probability of something happening at least once in n tries, then, is going to be p=1–(0.95)np=1–(0.95)n

The percentage chance is just 100p.

What you want to know is what n you need to get you a particular p. You can do the algebra, but it is actually easier just to use the above formula on a computer and use trial and error.

Since 5% is 1 in 20, there is a tendency to say that you need to try 20 times to get one result. This is a mistake.

The chance of getting at at least one result in 20 tries would be 64% … so you’d only get that roughly two-3rds of the time. That’s good enough for gambling but it is hardly certain.

The number of tries needed for 90% is 45 … in fact, you’d “expect” a result 2–3 times in 45 goes.

To be almost certain, at 99%, you need to set out to have 90 tries! 

This is called math.. it's a thing, to be more specific it's called probability, so before you go out and try to "correct someone" take a breath, stop being an l2 troll, and concentrate on the reality. NC Soft wests rates are NOT AS ADVERTISED. The MATH... this thing I just showed, proves it logically and with real numbers and real probability. Not QQ L2 trolling of telling someone they are wrong. Being a Troll is what they count on because it creates friction and allows trolls to attempt to discredit real issues so NC Soft doesn't have to answer to them. 

Bro, i've already told you that the chance of not succeeding 150 attempts is ~0.05% - that means what happened to you is 0.05% chance.
Its highly unlikely to have such bad luck, but its still ~1/2000 chance to happen.
Whats so hard to understand?
You say its "near impossible" "once every few million years" etc etc.
Then you come here, and try to give false information to people and lie about the rates.
Your math is wrong - so you're wrong, no one is trolling?

"If you have a 5% chance, and fail 100 times in a row, then every subsequent chance after that 100th failure, should be an extremely high chance to succeed. "
No, it just means you had insane amount of bad luck. the next click is still a 5% click.

 

 

You literally do this math here - "The chance of getting at at least one result in 20 tries would be 64% " etc.
So do the same math until 150 attempts. whats your result?

"If we extend this out beyond 20 to say 100, there is only a %0.9941 chance of failure EACH TIME after 100. "
What the heck?

[SafeStash]

On 12/17/2022 at 6:13 PM, Znip said:

I dare 10 people to record themselves clicking 6>7, and we'll see how many clicks it takes on average

I would do it, but 6->7 is not that hard. Might taken me both times about 20-80 crystals.

What is almost out of hand, is the 1% of 7->8.

I had people saying they got it with 20 crystals and I have myself spend well over 600 and still no luck.

That, compared to the dude that got lv 10 with 1.500 crystals it's starting to get out of common understanding.

They may post the % chances but no one ensures us that these are indeed as stated.

 

Last but not leasts, idk if anyone else mentioned it but I will.

1% chance means, that as the attempts reach an infinite number (+00), the more propable is to actually get that 1% to work in your favour.

What people, and myself as well included, fail to understand is that, this can happen from the 1st attempt or it may never happen, and that's a hard pill to swallow. 

[Trivak]

On 12/21/2022 at 9:24 AM, Znip said:

Bro, i've already told you that the chance of not succeeding 150 attempts is ~0.05% - that means what happened to you is 0.05% chance.
Its highly unlikely to have such bad luck, but its still ~1/2000 chance to happen.
Whats so hard to understand?
You say its "near impossible" "once every few million years" etc etc.
Then you come here, and try to give false information to people and lie about the rates.
Your math is wrong - so you're wrong, no one is trolling?

"If you have a 5% chance, and fail 100 times in a row, then every subsequent chance after that 100th failure, should be an extremely high chance to succeed. "
No, it just means you had insane amount of bad luck. the next click is still a 5% click.

 

 

You literally do this math here - "The chance of getting at at least one result in 20 tries would be 64% " etc.
So do the same math until 150 attempts. whats your result?

"If we extend this out beyond 20 to say 100, there is only a %0.9941 chance of failure EACH TIME after 100. "
What the heck?

DO u think tis game is about bad luck !? do u think they make  money  from bad luck of gamble ppl , i have no clue  how u dare to say   things like tis 

[Kysannia]

On 12/20/2022 at 11:24 PM, Znip said:

Bro, i've already told you that the chance of not succeeding 150 attempts is ~0.05% - that means what happened to you is 0.05% chance.
Its highly unlikely to have such bad luck, but its still ~1/2000 chance to happen.
Whats so hard to understand?
You say its "near impossible" "once every few million years" etc etc.
Then you come here, and try to give false information to people and lie about the rates.
Your math is wrong - so you're wrong, no one is trolling?

"If you have a 5% chance, and fail 100 times in a row, then every subsequent chance after that 100th failure, should be an extremely high chance to succeed. "
No, it just means you had insane amount of bad luck. the next click is still a 5% click.

 

 

You literally do this math here - "The chance of getting at at least one result in 20 tries would be 64% " etc.
So do the same math until 150 attempts. whats your result?

"If we extend this out beyond 20 to say 100, there is only a %0.9941 chance of failure EACH TIME after 100. "
What the heck?

The results of the posters math were posted WITH equations using probability. You haven't done anything except put them down with false claims of "this isnt how it works" but you just say "blah" and the poster gives math, equations that all add up.

This is how probability works, if you aren't familiar with it, do some reading, go take a class, but what you shouldn't do is push a falsehoods on forums trying to discredit someone that obviously knows far more about math and probability that you seem to. Keep it to the real issue, which is rates not being as advertised.   

[Znip]

4 hours ago, Kysannia said:

The results of the posters math were posted WITH equations using probability. You haven't done anything except put them down with false claims of "this isnt how it works" but you just say "blah" and the poster gives math, equations that all add up.

This is how probability works, if you aren't familiar with it, do some reading, go take a class, but what you shouldn't do is push a falsehoods on forums trying to discredit someone that obviously knows far more about math and probability that you seem to. Keep it to the real issue, which is rates not being as advertised.   

 

"this is how probability works" and then "If we extend this out beyond 20 to say 100, there is only a %0.9941 chance of failure EACH TIME after 100."

This guy seriously did 0.95^100 = 0.0059
Then 1-0.0059 = 0,9941

 

No, you just calculated the chance to fail/succeed 100 in a row.
you didnt calculate the % on everything past 100.