Rates aren't as advertised with Mystery Boxes, here is the real math.

[gabby]

@Wisp @Hermes Let me give a quick hip pocket class on  how percentages work.

If you advertise a 5% chance that something is going to advance (the mystery box) and I have 150 attempts, then on AVERAGE, I should have succeeded 7.5 times. 

If I had a deck of 20 cards which contains one ace of spades then the chance that I draw that ace of spades with my first draw is 5% (1/20). If I keep drawing cards without putting any back then I can be certain after I’ve drawn 20 cards that I now have the ace of spades. (which is how Japan's L2 servers do events, which is fair) 

(How YOU advertise that you do events) If I keep randomly drawing cards and put them back in each time, then each time I draw there is a 5% chance that I will draw the ace of spades. However there is no number of cards I can draw to be completely certain of drawing the ace of spades. In theory I could keep drawing forever without drawing the ace of spades though the chances that this will happen tends to zero as the number of draws increases. For example the probability after 20 draws that I have not drawn the ace of spades is 0.95^20 = 0.36. That means, out of 20 attempts, to NOT succeed is a 0.36% chance. 

If we extend this out beyond 20 to say 100, there is only a %0.9941 chance of failure EACH TIME after 100. 
This means that every time I attempted to compound the mystery box after 100, there was a 99.1% chance that I should have succeeded based on pure random, eyes closed attempt, because I had not succeeded yet. 

The Events that are given to players advertise a specific chance and we pay you REAL MONEY to take that advertised chance. You as a business are obligated to uphold that advertised chance. 

I attempted to compound a level 6 Mystery box 150 times without a success, with an advertised rate of 5%. This means, according to REAL percentages, statistics and chance (not made up L2 math), I failed a 99% chance of success 50 times in a row.

 

Fulfill your obligations as a business and deliver what YOU advertise. 

 

[gabby]

PLEASE RESPOND TO THIS POST! LET THE GM's KNOW where sick and tired of them not being forthcoming and treating players the right way! 

We can only make them change if we stand together

[JohnnyKnoxville]

I agree, I have completely removed myself from playing the chance game and its events other than items I am 100% going to get. I knew before I opened my 100 boxes today that I was only getting the scrolls that were advertised as a 100% chance. I suppose that NC has never heard of McDonald's, they sell a hamburger for $1.50 and make more than other places selling theirs at $35.00 per burger. At the end of the day, your whales will still spend the same on events while all of the other players will start spending on events creating more revenue for NC.

[Karigan]

Is it too much to ask for actual rates instead of an ambiguous "we're not really sure how the percentages/rates" work? Is this legal business practice? 

[gabby]

Just now, Karigan said:

Is it too much to ask for actual rates instead of an ambiguous "we're not really sure how the percentages/rates" work? Is this legal business practice? 

I can tell you how they DON'T work... as advertised in game, based on real random percentages

[admin33]

this company deserves to take a collective lawsuit from all paying players

[socketka]

chance to fail 5% with all 150 clicks is 0.0455%.

[CantTouchThis00]

I don't think odds work like that at all, personally. But 150 Attempts does seem high for something that is 5%. For some people tho, if that is their unluckiest moment, they'll take it in their path for a lv10 box or w/e is the good one up there. 

[frankznbeanz]

what if these rates arent based off of 100 boxes but 1000 or 10,000 hell with ncsoft its probably more like 100,000. untill they give that number we are all getting duped, cus its not 1 in 100 chance

 

[Kapudan]

I am afraid the chances don't work like that , when we talk about the 5% success rate for example on the lvl6 box it means everyone that try to enchant such box has a chance of 5% to lend a success and 95% to fail so statistically speaking from 100 people that will try to enchant such box 5 has the chance to win. It is not bound to the boxes number as it is bound to the rate that certain box have to success or fail.

[gabby]

18 minutes ago, Kapudan said:

I am afraid the chances don't work like that , when we talk about the 5% success rate for example on the lvl6 box it means everyone that try to enchant such box has a chance of 5% to lend a success and 95% to fail so statistically speaking from 100 people that will try to enchant such box 5 has the chance to win. It is not bound to the boxes number as it is bound to the rate that certain box have to success or fail.

It DOES work like that, its math. It's not up for debate, that's how percentages work. A 5% chance is a 5% chance regardless if it's 5% out of 10 million or 5% out of 20. What ISN'T up for debate is that the Advertised chance that is shown, is NOT 5%. It never is...

Now what you could be getting at is 5% is a server chance and not an individual chance, which would mean that players, unknowingly are paying money to have 0 chance. Because a server chance at 5% would indicate that once someone succeeds, everyone else would fail until that 5% chance cap is "reset" to whatever number they have chosen. 

In that case, this would be 100% fraudulent as that is NOT what is advertised.   

 

[Draecke]

put the blame where it belongs as it's USA laws that makes it that NC Soft still uses these loot box gamblingfest here as it's obviously the most profitable, this isn't how it is done in Korea itself and Japan has by far the most honest paid for ingame stuff - just cause their countries have very strict online gambling laws

as long as USA has zero proper online gambling laws regulations for games this is what you get

 

ps, to be clear in Korea & Japan the odds are publicly posted as part of their laws and in Japan after X amount of gambling u get mandatory a random Top reward so u always will get something worth the actual money spend

[Kapudan]

4 minutes ago, gabby said:

Now what you could be getting at is 5% is a server chance and not an individual chance, which would mean that players, unknowingly are paying money to have 0 chance. Because a server chance at 5% would indicate that once someone succeeds, everyone else would fail until that 5% chance cap is "reset" to whatever number they have chosen. 

 

That is what i am trying to say its more like 5% of all boxes lvl6 in the database to end up being lvl7  so good luck if anyone count it would be otherwise 5% of his 100 boxes will get lvl6.

[bentorero]

4 hours ago, gabby said:

@Wisp @Hermes Let me give a quick hip pocket class on  how percentages work.

If you advertise a 5% chance that something is going to advance (the mystery box) and I have 150 attempts, then on AVERAGE, I should have succeeded 7.5 times. 

If I had a deck of 20 cards which contains one ace of spades then the chance that I draw that ace of spades with my first draw is 5% (1/20). If I keep drawing cards without putting any back then I can be certain after I’ve drawn 20 cards that I now have the ace of spades. (which is how Japan's L2 servers do events, which is fair) 

(How YOU advertise that you do events) If I keep randomly drawing cards and put them back in each time, then each time I draw there is a 5% chance that I will draw the ace of spades. However there is no number of cards I can draw to be completely certain of drawing the ace of spades. In theory I could keep drawing forever without drawing the ace of spades though the chances that this will happen tends to zero as the number of draws increases. For example the probability after 20 draws that I have not drawn the ace of spades is 0.95^20 = 0.36. That means, out of 20 attempts, to NOT succeed is a 0.36% chance. 

If we extend this out beyond 20 to say 100, there is only a %0.9941 chance of failure EACH TIME after 100. 
This means that every time I attempted to compound the mystery box after 100, there was a 99.1% chance that I should have succeeded based on pure random, eyes closed attempt, because I had not succeeded yet. 

The Events that are given to players advertise a specific chance and we pay you REAL MONEY to take that advertised chance. You as a business are obligated to uphold that advertised chance. 

I attempted to compound a level 6 Mystery box 150 times without a success, with an advertised rate of 5%. This means, according to REAL percentages, statistics and chance (not made up L2 math), I failed a 99% chance of success 50 times in a row.

 

Fulfill your obligations as a business and deliver what YOU advertise. 

 

it can still be 0/150

[gabby]

2 hours ago, bentorero said:

it can still be 0/150

It can be, but that means every click after 100, You would have a 99% chance of Succeeding, but you wouldn't, you would fail... 50 times in a row with a 99% chance. Possible? yes? Probable? You have a better chance of being struck by lightning, right after winning the lottery and then having your house destroyed by a meteor 30 seconds later.  

[KazAnakiuS]

3 hours ago, gabby said:

It can be, but that means every click after 100, You would have a 99% chance of Succeeding, but you wouldn't, you would fail... 50 times in a row with a 99% chance. Possible? yes? Probable? You have a better chance of being struck by lightning, right after winning the lottery and then having your house destroyed by a meteor 30 seconds later.  

It doesnt work like that mate... I think you got it totaly wrong...

a 5% chance to succeed means that you have 95% chance to fail. In every effort you make. Every individual effort has a 95% failure chance. It doesnt necessarily mean that you ll succeed 5 times in 100.

BUT! in a large number of efforts, lets say 1000 efforts, yes, you ll probably get arround 50 successes.  If you only try 100 times though, it is VERY possible that you ll get 0 successes, or maybe 10 successes if you re lucky.

In order to see the real percentage, you have to make a very large number of efforts. The sample has to be big.

Let me tell you a better example:

A coin, has 50% chance to land on tails or heads.

If you only throw it 10 times, it is possible that you get 10 heads, or 10 tails in a row, or maybe a percentage of 80-20, 70-30 which would be wrong.

If you throw it 1000 times though, i can guarantee that the result would be very close to 50-50.

[Znip]

"If we extend this out beyond 20 to say 100, there is only a %0.9941 chance of failure EACH TIME after 100. "

Sorry? you can never say "each time after X i will have X chance" when it comes to math.

In this case, 5% is always 5%.
What you can do is calculate the chance of something happening or not happening - but thats it.
You never have anything other than a 5% chance a click. no matter how many clicks you do.

 

"0.95^20 = 0.36. That means, out of 20 attempts, to NOT succeed is a 0.36% chance.  "

No, first of all that's a very basic way of calculating probability, but what you just did is calculate the percent of failing 20 times in a row, which is 36%.

0.95^20 = 0.36, this means 36% not 0.36%

 

 

But yes, failing 150 in a row is very bad luck. but it can happen.
Failing 150 in a row, would be 0.05% chance.
Unlikely? yes.

[mixa]

Consider this, everything that's a chance in l2 is expressed as 1 over 1000 and not 1 over 100. This leads to much broader outcome results, while maintaining the % values.

[Ballkain]

2 hours ago, mixa said:

Consider this, everything that's a chance in l2 is expressed as 1 over 1000 and not 1 over 100. This leads to much broader outcome results, while maintaining the % values.

well, that would make for an extremely interesting law suit, i think you should rethink that.  5% is 5% 

[SafeStash]

1 hour ago, Ballkain said:

well, that would make for an extremely interesting law suit, i think you should rethink that.  5% is 5% 

@Slycutter I think Sly was a lawer, if i am not mistaken.

Would you want to take them up on this mate?

 

I know how chances work, but it SURELY feels that unless you spent enough, you wont get anything. 

It seems rigged. 10% chance on a damn talisman, should happen when we try 20 times or more. 

This seems liek the scale is always tilted to the house, and the house always wins.

 

Before 5 years, I made a ticket and complained that I have tried more than 100 times to upgrade a cloak to legendary.

They said the looked into it, and that it works as intented. 

They also said that they saw my attempts and also thought it is bad, so they rewarded me with adena and coins (yea, i was shocked too)

 

[Seshorama]

you know its going bad when top pay2win kidz are upset about percentages....lol

5% chance is all you get, no matter how many boxes you open 1 or 100 boxes...each box is only 5%

each attempt you make, there is a 95% chance you are going to fail

there is no special formula, its clearly posted...each attempt you have a 5% chance to succeed or 95% chance to fail

im not a gambling man, but i dont think any1 in their right mind would ever accept those odds

[Seshorama]

19 hours ago, Draecke said:

put the blame where it belongs as it's USA laws that makes it that NC Soft still uses these loot box gamblingfest here as it's obviously the most profitable, this isn't how it is done in Korea itself and Japan has by far the most honest paid for ingame stuff - just cause their countries have very strict online gambling laws

as long as USA has zero proper online gambling laws regulations for games this is what you get

 

ps, to be clear in Korea & Japan the odds are publicly posted as part of their laws and in Japan after X amount of gambling u get mandatory a random Top reward so u always will get something worth the actual money spend

why blame the laws? the rates are clearly posted....

why not blame yourself, or the others, who participate in gambling with bad rates? no1 made you do it, lil dwaekie

[dmangus]

Im actually sick and tired of this being a gambling game. I got into it for the mmorg aspect, now its just nothing but money gambling at every turn. Call its lineage Slots or Lineage Hold-em or something. If we are spending money for digital items, it should be just that. I buy a weapon for x amount of money. I should't have to spend hundreds of dollars for a chance, for a chance, to get a chance to maybe get an item. Even worst is to read by others all these chances are not as advertised. Since this is real money we are dealing with I cant imagine how there are no class action suits about this. 

 

[Seshorama]

17 minutes ago, dmangus said:

Im actually sick and tired of this being a gambling game. I got into it for the mmorg aspect, now its just nothing but money gambling at every turn. Call its lineage Slots or Lineage Hold-em or something. If we are spending money for digital items, it should be just that. I buy a weapon for x amount of money. I should't have to spend hundreds of dollars for a chance, for a chance, to get a chance to maybe get an item. Even worst is to read by others all these chances are not as advertised. Since this is real money we are dealing with I cant imagine how there are no class action suits about this. 

 

you and your game friends should contact the US gaming commission

where i live here in the USA, gambling is illegal....unless its on an indian reservation lol, true story

[Instinctive]

21 hours ago, gabby said:

@Wisp @Hermes Let me give a quick hip pocket class on  how percentages work.

If you advertise a 5% chance that something is going to advance (the mystery box) and I have 150 attempts, then on AVERAGE, I should have succeeded 7.5 times. 

If I had a deck of 20 cards which contains one ace of spades then the chance that I draw that ace of spades with my first draw is 5% (1/20). If I keep drawing cards without putting any back then I can be certain after I’ve drawn 20 cards that I now have the ace of spades. (which is how Japan's L2 servers do events, which is fair) 

(How YOU advertise that you do events) If I keep randomly drawing cards and put them back in each time, then each time I draw there is a 5% chance that I will draw the ace of spades. However there is no number of cards I can draw to be completely certain of drawing the ace of spades. In theory I could keep drawing forever without drawing the ace of spades though the chances that this will happen tends to zero as the number of draws increases. For example the probability after 20 draws that I have not drawn the ace of spades is 0.95^20 = 0.36. That means, out of 20 attempts, to NOT succeed is a 0.36% chance. 

If we extend this out beyond 20 to say 100, there is only a %0.9941 chance of failure EACH TIME after 100. 
This means that every time I attempted to compound the mystery box after 100, there was a 99.1% chance that I should have succeeded based on pure random, eyes closed attempt, because I had not succeeded yet. 

The Events that are given to players advertise a specific chance and we pay you REAL MONEY to take that advertised chance. You as a business are obligated to uphold that advertised chance. 

I attempted to compound a level 6 Mystery box 150 times without a success, with an advertised rate of 5%. This means, according to REAL percentages, statistics and chance (not made up L2 math), I failed a 99% chance of success 50 times in a row.

 

Fulfill your obligations as a business and deliver what YOU advertise. 

 

Man i want to thank u because with ur post i didnt even try to open boxes or something else.. Really i want to take something good but i realize that this risk dont worth.. Sorry for ur feelings.. Like 2 pac told we need changes...